I think there are a couple of variables to consider with wedding cupcakes.
1. Will the cupcakes be served? Plated by someone and served to each person just like a cake would be.
OR
2. Will the cupcakes be picked up by the guests when they like?
If the cupcakes are to be served, you can use the one cupcake/one serving theory. If not... you may have some folks taking more than one, and even taking cupcakes home. Granted, not every single person will eat cake/cupcake. If the cupcakes are not being served, I would allow at least 1/4 more cupcakes than people (example 100 people=125 cupcakes.
I would discuss it with the bride and see what she wants to do.
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