Hi everyone!
I am just starting on my market research and my business plan. I am very confident with most aspects of the plan except one: I need to provide its readers with predicted trends of the industry.
So I call on you, my fellow CCers! Firstly, what trends do you just see developing? I'm thinking about decorating trends, flavour and cake type trends, and also those concerning size, how the cake is presented and served, and the peripherals like favours and shower and grooms' cakes. Anyone have any thoughts?
Also, what publications would provide me with similar info?
I can't wait to see what everyone comes up with!
First, be careful when you look at any report on "trends". There were a number of articles, reports, etc., that were stating the chocolate fountains were replacing wedding cakes. I think it was the chocolate companies who were spreading that rumor, because I've never seen a wedding without a cake. (My son in law says if he walks into a wedding with no cake, he's taking his present and leaving! 
)
A bank is less concerned with what cake flavor a bride is ordering and more concerned with financial trends. Here's what I have in my biz plan on "trends":
Industry Trends:
Between the years 2000 and 2006, the number of weddings is expected to decline by about 3% while the amount of money spent is expected to increase by about 2.3%.
The cost of a wedding and reception has increased 50% over the last ten years.
The industry is expected to grow 14% by 2007, due to Gen-Y, and 30% by 2010.
2nd and 3rd marriages account for 60% of all marriages.
Average income of an engaged couple is $60,000.
I'm starting research in another area as we are thinking of putting a shop there. The population of this area is dropping pretty dramatically, but the marriage rate is higher! Less people but more marriages! This area also has a high divorce rate. With the statistic of 2nd and 3rd marriages accounting for more than half of all marriages, that translates into lots of potential business.
That's the kind of trend(s) the bank wants to see.
Dont' confuse business trends with cake trends. The bank wants to see business trends. They want to see what factors will affect your bottom line. The flavor of cake a bride orders is immaterial to them.
I agree with Indy here... But also that it's going to depend on the area you're in. I'm in an area that even to this day, other than cakes I make, there have only been TWO fondant cakes in the past 7 years, and one was a dummy.
The real trends of this industry aren't in a magazine. I have seen the Chocolate Fountains at events, but they're usually done once or twice and that's it because they're just SO messy! (they don't bother to go to the local Chocolate shop and have the attendant standing there to help)..
Also the other thing is when it comes to business plans, the cake is pretty minor compared to the BUSINESS side of things. Things like labor costs are going up because the fed's raised the minimum wage and most states are soon to follow even though economically it's only a "feel good" measure because the price of everything will raise up accordingly so there's no real benefit to the raise. Also, you need to work in a plan for a living wage for yourself and any additional staff. Health insurance, liability insurance, building insurance, workman's comp insurance. Uniform costs if you plan to have everyone look consistent.
Another issue is trends in government regulation. There are very few areas that are getting deregulated, so you've got to be realistic about the cost of being in business and regulated by the gov't (cost of food manager training/certs, inspections, equipment upgrades, etc.)..
The biggest trend I've notice is that if you take out the fantasy wedding budgets there are two trends. One that brides want a cheap cake and will do things like request "sheet cakes" without doing their math to know that they're really going to pay more for the same amount of cake if they do the geometry and do a cost per inch analysis. They are basically hypnotized into believing everything that bridal magazines say regardless of whether it is reality (it's not just for cakes either). The second trend is that the brides that are willing to pay normal prices want everything thrown in for the base price. Thankfully the cupcake trend is die'n a relieving death for most parts of the country. Brides are starting to take credibly their guests who say it looks cheesy regardless of how well decorated the cupcake is.
The other thing to spend some time on with a business plan is advertising and marketing trends and costs. It's great to have a business, but if no one knows you exist, what have you got. Also, put time into finding out the REALITY cost of building a kitchen and the difference between using refurbished/used equipment or going with new. There's a reason so many restaurants have equipment that looks like it has seen better days.
Good luck with the business plan, just be sure that you root it in the reality costs of being in business and not the wishful thinking business plans we had to write in college (ours had a million-dollar budget that had peanuts dedicated to the actual cost of the kitchen).
First, be careful when you look at any report on "trends". There were a number of articles, reports, etc., that were stating the chocolate fountains were replacing wedding cakes. I think it was the chocolate companies who were spreading that rumor, because I've never seen a wedding without a cake. (My son in law says if he walks into a wedding with no cake, he's taking his present and leaving!
)A bank is less concerned with what cake flavor a bride is ordering and more concerned with financial trends. Here's what I have in my biz plan on "trends":
Industry Trends:
Between the years 2000 and 2006, the number of weddings is expected to decline by about 3% while the amount of money spent is expected to increase by about 2.3%.
The cost of a wedding and reception has increased 50% over the last ten years.
The industry is expected to grow 14% by 2007, due to Gen-Y, and 30% by 2010.
2nd and 3rd marriages account for 60% of all marriages.
Average income of an engaged couple is $60,000.
I'm starting research in another area as we are thinking of putting a shop there. The population of this area is dropping pretty dramatically, but the marriage rate is higher! Less people but more marriages! This area also has a high divorce rate. With the statistic of 2nd and 3rd marriages accounting for more than half of all marriages, that translates into lots of potential business.
That's the kind of trend(s) the bank wants to see.
Dont' confuse business trends with cake trends. The bank wants to see business trends. They want to see what factors will affect your bottom line. The flavor of cake a bride orders is immaterial to them.
Totally agree. I just finished my plan a month ago, and everything Debi mentions was in my "trends" part of the plan.
Not sure what state or city you are in, but you can get most of the statistics from the state/city website. (at least in BC, Canada I could).. Tells you how many people are in your city, how many marriages took place, etc.. I did it for the three cities around my area and came up with my numbers..
HTH
P.S. In the new area we are researching, they didn't have marriage rates on their website, so I emailed the clerk's office, who emailed me back the number of actual marriage licenses issued for the past 5 years! They were very helpful! (She also gave me the divorce numbers, too.) So if you can't find it ... ask 'em.
Thanks for posting this, I needed it as well!
I have seen the Chocolate Fountains at events, but they're usually done once or twice and that's it because they're just SO messy! (they don't bother to go to the local Chocolate shop and have the attendant standing there to help)..
I SO agree with this statement!
I have predicted for some time that the choc fountains that were all bought up as mother's day gifts will soon become the big garage sale item of the year .... once people find out how much work they are and how messy they are and how much choc it takes just to run them and the yucky clean up!
On the flip side, that's exactly why they are very profitable for me .... the client doesn't want to mess with it, so they will happily pay me to handle it for them.
I have predicted for some time that the choc fountains that were all bought up as mother's day gifts will soon become the big garage sale item of the year .... once people find out how much work they are and how messy they are and how much choc it takes just to run them and the yucky clean up!
On the flip side, that's exactly why they are very profitable for me .... the client doesn't want to mess with it, so they will happily pay me to handle it for them.
OH MY GOSH! I bought a small one for our fall ICES meeting last year as the dessert... I spent more time cleaning up that blasted thing than I did preparing the meal, serving the meal/dessert, AND doing dishes from the meal... I guess the commercial ones are easier to clean, but STILL! SO not worth purchasing those things.. I'm happy to go up to the fountain run by a local chocolatier and let him take care of all the cleanup for me 
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