I have a local bakery (specializing in cupcakes) in a small town and will have the pleasure of being a vendor at an event in a few weeks.  It's the Wisconsin National Grilled Cheese competition.  It may not sound like a big deal, but it is for my area.  There will be over 2000 people attending (for a small town this is a lot).  Their will be competitors and vendors set up (cheese, beer, local stores, etc).  As a vendor I will be selling cupcakes and will be the only source of a dessert other than the dessert grilled cheese competitor entries, and a vendor that sells chocolates.  The event is 5 hours long, some people will just want a single cupcake, others may opt to take a pack home, and some will want none.   I'm really struggling to gauge how many cupcakes to make since not all 2000 people will be at the event at once, some may not buy from vendors, etc.  To add another level of complexity, I am a by order bakery and open once a month.  These "open days" have become events for my town where people make a trip to get cupcakes that day.  The locals will see this as another chance to get cupcakes for the month without having to order so that may draw more people to my table.  It's my first year vending at this event so I'm at a loss.  I've opened the question up to attendees on my social media, but I would appreciate any input I can get on here.  Thanks!

Oops! sorry for the typo in the title of the forum!

Read here before, 10% of attendees buy a cupcake. Add to that any "to go" orders that may be typical for you. And of course, to "sell out" is the goal.

Thank you for the input johnson6ofus! Yes, selling out is always the goal :)

Oh, it might help if you posted  the price to attend (visitors) and the price you plan to sell for. If you sell for $1/ cupcake it is different than $5/cupcake. 

The price to attend the event is free (unless you upgrade to a VIP pass that comes with a gift basket).  And I will be selling the cupcakes for the same price people get them at my shop for :)

I would double the number of "normal" cupcake customers you might expect and I would probably go 10-20% of attendees,So 200-400 individual cupcakes, plus take home dozens. 

(Based on what many people on here have posted on these type of events)

Thanks for the help!  I made 345 (to be exact) and actually sold out an hour and half early!  There was a lot of good buzz about my table drawing in a big line so next year I could probably get away with doing at least 100 more :)

AWESOME! Sell out, good buzz.... can't be better! Congrats!

Congratulations, I think that is great.  I am curious how many 'sweet treat' type vendors were there with you?  I am doing some events this summer but they are much bigger but more competition too and I am wondering if my estimate should be lower than yours because of it.  If you don't mind the questions it could greatly help me with my festivals???

What did you sell yours for?

Did you sell them individually or in 4 or 6packs?

Did you take any mini cupcakes or just regular sized?

Was the 2000 people estimate about right? 

Hour many hours were you selling for?

Thank you again if you don't mind taking the time to answer...I am really worried about how many to back for mine :)

Thank you johnson6ofus and sdcupcakes!   sdcupcakes I was at a total loss on how many to make for my event as well! The flavors I had ranged from $1.50-1.75 each (standard size cupcakes) and I had them set up in display cases for individual sale but also brought along 4 and 6 packs so people could get some to take home if they wanted (which many people did).  I didn't prepack them, just let people choose what they wanted in the packs and choose if they wanted one or several them.  There wasn't much else for competition, which helped a lot.  Since it was a Grilled Cheese competition there were some food trucks, beer, and a lot of cheese makers selling.  The only other source of dessert was a chocolate stand.  So if you are doing an event with more competition I would suggest doing the 10-20% of people that johnson6ofus suggested.  I don't know the final count of the people who showed up to the event, but I could have used more cupcakes.  The event was from 11am-4pm and I sold out at 2:30.  

I hope that helps!

stephsweetreats, thank you for the info...it helps me to decide what to bake for my festivals :)